Poland: Inflation outlook stabilises – ING

ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end. The economists said the final September CPI reading should confirm that broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services. They also warned that the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027. The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026, so headline CPI should run within the 3.5–4.0% YoY range by the end of the year. They forecast that in August the current account deficit was slightly higher than €2bn, but slightly lower than in August 2025.