Canada Employment Report

Canada's employment report has two closely watched numbers every month: the change in the number of employed people and the unemployment rate. It is often released on the same day and at the same time as the US employment report (NFP) ; that is why the US dollar to Canadian dollar pair is one of the most volatile charts in the market during those minutes. At the top of this page you can see the next release time of Canada's employment data with a countdown in Tehran time, the latest actual and forecast figures, and a history chart of both numbers. Below you will read where this report comes from and why it sometimes behaves unexpectedly.

Where does Canada's employment data come from?

These numbers come from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey. The survey asks households who has a job, who is looking for work and who is not in the labour market at all. So unlike the US NFP data, which is based on employer reports, the Canadian figure is built from household responses, and both headline numbers come from the same survey:

• Employment Change: how many thousand more or fewer people are employed this month than last month.
• Unemployment Rate: the percentage of people in the labour market who do not have a job and are looking for one.

Canada employment report release time in Tehran time

The report is monthly and is usually released on the first Friday of the month, covering the previous month. The release time is 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time in Canada; that is 16:00 Tehran time in the months when Canada observes daylight saving time and 17:00 the rest of the year. Not every month coincides with NFP, so check each month's date in the economic calendar or the countdown on this page.

Why is this report so volatile?

The survey is sample-based and Canada's population is relatively small; therefore the sampling error in the employment change figure is large relative to its size. As a result, sometimes one month records a very strong number and the next month a weak one, without the economy actually changing that much. A few points help you read the report better:

1. Look at the multi-month trend. That is what the "Employment Change" chart at the top of the page is for; a single number means less than the trend of the last few months.
2. Full-time versus part-time. Employment growth that comes mostly from part-time jobs is usually of lower quality, and the market takes it less seriously.
3. Read the unemployment rate separately. Employment may rise while unemployment also increases, because more people have entered the labour market and are looking for work. The participation rate, which is included in the same report, shows these entries and exits. Conversely, a drop in unemployment along with falling participation is not necessarily good news; it may simply mean some people have stopped looking for work.
4. Wages. Hourly wage growth is also included in this report and is a sign of inflationary pressure for the central bank. Sometimes the employment number is ordinary but wage growth is surprising, and the market reacts to that.

When Canadian and US data are released at the same time

On days when the two reports come out together, the move in USD/CAD is the result of comparing two surprises, not one. The table below shows common tendencies; none of them is guaranteed:

US result	Canada result	Typical USD/CAD tendency
Better than expected	Worse than expected	Tends to rise
Worse than expected	Better than expected	Tends to fall
Better or worse than expected	In the same direction as the US	Unclear and often choppy movement

To separate the effect of the US news from the Canadian news, you can also look at a pair such as the euro to Canadian dollar alongside it. Oil prices also affect the Canadian dollar, because Canada is a major oil exporter; if US crude oil makes a sharp move at the same time, the picture becomes more complicated.

Link to interest rates and trading risk

The Bank of Canada weighs the labour market alongside inflation. A strong labour market and rising wages can strengthen expectations of higher interest rates, while a weak labour market makes a rate cut more likely. That is why you should follow this report together with Canadian inflation (CPI) and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision .

In the minutes when the two reports are released simultaneously, liquidity is thin and spreads are wide, and orders may be executed with slippage . If you have open positions, before the news set your stop loss sensibly or reduce your size. This page is not trading advice.