US Inflation (CPI)

The US CPI, more often called "US inflation" in the news, shows each month how much the prices of goods and services bought by American households have changed. Few data releases can multiply the volatility of the dollar and gold in an instant the way CPI does, because it directly affects the market's expectations for interest rates. At the top of this page you can see the next release time with a countdown, the latest actual figure, the forecast and previous values, and a chart of monthly headline and core inflation. Below, we explain how to read these numbers and what to keep in mind on CPI release day.

What does the Consumer Price Index measure?

CPI (Consumer Price Index) is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Each month, the bureau records the prices of a large basket of goods and services in different cities, from rent and food to gasoline, clothing, cars, healthcare and transportation. Each component is weighted according to its share of household spending, and housing costs are the largest component of the basket. The result is an index number whose change shows the consumer inflation rate.

If you want to know why inflation matters so much for asset prices, the article The Impact of Inflation on Financial Markets explains the general mechanism; this page focuses on the US CPI report itself.

US CPI release time in Tehran time

The CPI report is monthly and is usually released around the middle of the month for the previous month. It is released at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 16:00 Tehran time in the months when the US observes daylight saving time (from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November) and 17:00 for the rest of the year. This coincides with the start of the New York session and its overlap with London, a period of high trading volume. To see the opening and closing times of each session in Tehran time, check the World Market Hours page. You can also find the exact date of each release in the Teagle Economic Calendar and in the countdown at the top of this page.

How to read the CPI report figures

Each release announces four main figures, and each carries a different message:

Figure	What it says
Monthly CPI (m/m)	Price change versus the previous month; the latest picture of inflation's momentum
Annual CPI (y/y)	Change versus the same month a year earlier; the figure that makes the headlines
Monthly core CPI	Monthly change excluding food and energy
Annual core CPI	The more persistent inflation trend over a year

Core or headline?

Food and energy prices can swing sharply because of a development in the oil market or a bad agricultural season. Core inflation excludes these two so that the underlying price trend can be seen. That is why the market is often more sensitive to the monthly core figure; headline inflation may fall because gasoline got cheaper, but if core comes in above expectations, the market reacts toward higher inflation.

Small difference, big impact

Monthly figures are usually reported to one decimal place, and a difference of just one tenth of a percentage point from the forecast is enough to move the market sharply. The "Forecast" column in the table at the top of the page is the benchmark for comparison; measure the actual figure against it, not against the previous month's figure.

CPI's role in Federal Reserve decisions

The Federal Reserve measures its inflation target with another index called PCE , but CPI is released about two weeks earlier and is therefore the first serious signal of each month's inflation. By combining CPI with the Producer Price Index (PPI) , analysts can largely estimate the PCE figure. When CPI comes in above expectations for several months in a row, the market raises the odds of a tighter stance at the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision .

How markets typically react to US inflation

A higher-than-forecast CPI means the likelihood of higher or longer-lasting interest rates; as a result, the dollar usually strengthens, pairs such as USD/JPY rise, gold comes under pressure, and risk-sensitive indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and the crypto market fall. A lower-than-expected CPI usually has the opposite effect. However, if the market was heavily crowded in one direction before the release, even an in-line figure can trigger a sharp move in the opposite direction.

Practical tips for CPI release day

• Look at the monthly core figure and the annual headline together. If they point in opposite directions, the initial move is usually unreliable and the market changes direction several times.
• In the seconds around the release, market orders and stop losses may be filled at a distance from the intended price; the article What Is Slippage covers this risk in more detail.
• If you are not trading the news, review your open positions on the dollar and gold before the release time; CPI usually makes that day more volatile than a normal day.

This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.