US Unemployment Rate

The US unemployment rate shows what share of the country's labor force is looking for work but has no job. This figure is released every month alongside the NFP report, but it tells a different story: NFP counts jobs from the employers' side, while the unemployment rate paints the labor market from the households' side. At the top of this page you can see the next release time in Tehran time, the latest actual figure and forecast, and a chart of the unemployment rate's history from official statistics; this guide explains how the figure is built and why the Federal Reserve is sensitive to it.

How is the US unemployment rate measured?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) derives this figure from the household survey (Current Population Survey), which the Census Bureau conducts every month among about 60,000 households. Household members are asked whether they have a job and, if not, whether they have looked for work in the past four weeks and are available to work.

An unemployed person is someone who has no job, is available to work and has actively looked for work. The labor force is the total of the employed and the unemployed, and the unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in that labor force, not in the total population. Someone who has stopped searching is no longer counted as unemployed and drops out of the labor force. Because this figure comes from a sample, a one-tenth of a percentage point change in a single month can be within statistical error; the trend over several months is more meaningful.

We have explained the details of the job count, wages and revisions on the US Employment Report (NFP) page. Sometimes the two surveys don't point the same way; for example, NFP is strong but unemployment has also risen. In that case the market usually gives more weight to whichever figure landed further from the forecast.

Unemployment rate release time

The unemployment rate is released in the same monthly Employment Situation report; usually on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, i.e. 16:00 Tehran time in the months when the US is on daylight saving time and 17:00 in winter. Follow the exact time each month in the countdown at the top of the page or in the economic calendar .

Labor force participation and indicators alongside the unemployment rate

Participation rate

The labor force participation rate tells you what share of the adult population either has a job or is looking for one. If unemployment falls because some people have stopped searching and participation has also dropped, the news isn't as good as it looks. Conversely, a rise in unemployment together with an increase in participation may simply show that more people have returned to the labor market.

U-3 and U-6

The figure you see in the calendar is the official rate, or U-3. The BLS also publishes a broader measure called U-6, which also includes people working part-time who want full-time work and people who want a job but haven't looked for one in the past four weeks. The gap between the two gives a picture of hidden underemployment.

What does the unemployment rate signal to the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve has two legal mandates: maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate is the most direct measure of the first. Low, stable unemployment gives the Fed room to focus on inflation and keep interest rates high; unemployment that rises several months in a row increases recession fears and the likelihood of rate cuts. Many analysts pay more attention to the speed of change than to the level itself, because unemployment in the US usually falls slowly but rises sharply on the eve of a recession.

Alongside the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, this figure gives a fuller picture. The outcome of this assessment shows up in the Federal Reserve interest rate decision , and you can see the latest central bank rates on the interest rates page.

Impact of the unemployment rate on the dollar, gold and markets

Remember that for this data, a figure above the forecast is a sign of weakness . Higher-than-expected unemployment usually raises expectations of rate cuts; the dollar tends to weaken and gold (per ounce) often benefits. A currency pair such as USD/JPY is also sensitive to shifts in rate expectations. Lower-than-expected unemployment usually has the opposite effect. Stock indices can react either way: sometimes higher unemployment is read as good on hopes of rate cuts, and sometimes as bad, as a sign of recession.

Because this figure comes out together with NFP and wages, the market's first move is the sum of all of them. In those minutes spreads widen and slippage is common; review your position sizes before the release and stick to loss control methods . This page is not a buy or sell recommendation.