Eurozone Inflation

Eurozone inflation is the most important figure the European Central Bank looks at when setting interest rates, and for that reason it is one of the few releases that can move the euro noticeably in a single day. The data is published in two stages each month: a preliminary estimate that moves the market, and a final figure that usually just confirms it. On this page you can see the next release time in Tehran time, the latest actual, forecast and previous figures, and a chart of annual headline and core inflation from official Eurostat data; this guide explains how to read these numbers.

What is the Eurozone CPI and who publishes it?

What you see in the economic calendar as Eurozone CPI is actually the "Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices", or HICP. It is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and measures the change in prices of a basket of consumer goods and services across all euro area member states. "Harmonised" means the calculation method is the same in every country, so the figures can be compared and aggregated.

The importance of this data comes from the fact that the European Central Bank's official target is 2% inflation over the medium term, based on this very index. The further inflation is from this target, the more likely a change in monetary policy becomes. To see how inflation feeds into interest rates and from there into asset prices, read the article The Effect of Inflation on Financial Markets .

Eurozone inflation release time: flash estimate and final figure

The key feature of this data is its two-stage release:

Stage	Approximate timing	Importance for the market
Flash Estimate	The last days of the same month or the first business day of the following month	High; the first full picture of the month's inflation
Final figure (Final)	About two to three weeks later	Low, unless it differs from the flash estimate

Eurostat publishes its main data at 11:00 Luxembourg time, which is around 12:30 Tehran time in summer and 13:30 in winter, because Iran does not observe daylight saving time while Europe does. This falls in the middle of the London session, when euro liquidity is high. The countdown at the top of this page shows the exact time of the next release.

Practical tip: preliminary inflation data from the region's largest economies, such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain, is usually released before the Eurozone estimate. Professional traders use these figures to guess whether the overall Eurozone number will come in above or below the forecast, so part of the surprise may already be priced into the euro before the official release.

Headline vs. core inflation: which matters more?

In each release you see two main figures, both reported on an annual basis (y/y):

• Headline inflation: The price change of the entire consumer basket. This figure is very sensitive to energy price swings and sometimes moves simply because oil and gas got more or less expensive.
• Core inflation: The same index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. This figure shows the more persistent price trend, and the European Central Bank pays close attention to it when gauging lasting inflationary pressure.

If headline and core inflation surprise in opposite directions, the market reaction is often closer to core inflation. Services inflation, which is shown separately in the Eurostat report, is also considered an important sign of persistent inflation because of its dependence on wages.

The effect of Eurozone inflation on the euro, gold and other markets

Typically, higher-than-expected inflation raises the likelihood of tighter policy from the European Central Bank and strengthens the euro; lower-than-expected inflation does the opposite. This is a common tendency, not a hard rule. The effect is most visible in the currency pairs EUR/USD and EUR/GBP . However, a few factors complicate this relationship:

• If the market already considers the bank's next decision a certainty, even a moderate surprise has only a brief effect.
• On days when important US data is also released, EUR/USD moves more in response to US news. Keep the US Inflation (CPI) page open alongside this one.
• The effect of this data on gold and crypto is usually indirect and smaller than that of US news, coming mostly through the dollar strengthening or weakening.

Link to the European Central Bank interest rate decision

The European Central Bank holds eight monetary policy meetings a year, and inflation data between these meetings is its most important input. For this reason, a flash estimate released a few days before a meeting usually carries more weight. See the time of the next meeting and the history of decisions on the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision page, and a comparison of rates on the Central Bank Interest Rates page.

Risk tips on release day

1. Before the release, check the figures for Germany and the other large economies to better gauge a possible surprise.
2. In the first few minutes, the spread on euro pairs widens; a stop loss placed too close may be triggered for no real reason.
3. Don't underestimate the final figure, but if it matches the flash estimate, it usually doesn't produce a significant move.
4. Check how this time overlaps with other sessions on the World Market Hours page.

This page is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.