US Retail Sales

The US Retail Sales report is the fastest official picture of how much Americans spent last month, from cars and gasoline to restaurants and online stores. Because household consumption is the main engine of the US economy, this data matters for the dollar, stock indices and gold. On this page you can see the next US Retail Sales release time in Tehran time and the actual, forecast and previous figures for recent releases. This guide helps you understand what lies behind the "monthly retail sales" figure and why the market sometimes reacts to it against expectations.

Who publishes the US Retail Sales report?

The report is published monthly by the US Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce. The figure the market sees at release is an "advance estimate" based on a sample of stores, which is why it gets revised in the following months. The report shows the dollar value of sales by retailers and food services and is adjusted for seasonal effects, such as year-end shopping.

A point that is often forgotten: this data is nominal and not adjusted for inflation. If prices rose in a month, dollar sales may grow without people actually buying more. That is why reading it alongside US inflation (CPI) gives a more accurate picture.

Why is American consumption so important?

Household consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of US GDP . When retail sales are strong, it means the labor market and people's incomes are still supporting spending; when they weaken for several months in a row, concerns about an economic slowdown rise. The Federal Reserve also looks at this data to gauge whether the economy is running hot or cold.

Retail sales are best read alongside the US jobs report (NFP) : employment and wages show how much income people have, and retail sales show how much of it they spend. If employment stays strong but consumer spending falls for several consecutive months, this divergence usually draws analysts' attention.

US Retail Sales release time in Tehran time

The report is usually released around the middle of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, which is 16:00 in summer and 17:00 in winter Tehran time. This falls in the middle of the London–New York session overlap, which has high liquidity; see the session times on the global market hours page. Sometimes other US data is released at the same time, and the market reaction is a mix of all of them.

Headline retail sales, core and control group

One report contains several figures, and the market looks at all of them:

• Monthly retail sales (Retail Sales m/m): the change in total sales from the previous month; the headline figure.
• Core retail sales (Core Retail Sales m/m): sales excluding autos. Auto sales are volatile and can make the headline figure misleading.
• Control group: sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services. This figure is used in estimating consumption within GDP, and professional analysts give it a lot of weight.
• Previous month's revision: if the new figure is good but the previous month is revised down, the positive effect is partly offset.

Suppose the headline figure comes in above forecast, but only because gasoline got more expensive; in this case the control group may be weak and the market may quickly reverse its initial reaction.

How does the market react to retail sales?

The common pattern is that stronger-than-expected retail sales strengthen the dollar, because the likelihood that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high increases; in this case a currency pair such as EUR/USD usually falls. A weak figure works the other way. But the stock reaction is ambiguous: strong sales are good news for corporate profits and can lift the Dow Jones , but if the market is worried about inflation and interest rates, the same good news may push indices down. Gold also usually moves opposite to the dollar. None of these relationships is certain.

Release day checklist

• Check the headline and core forecasts in advance so you know which part the surprise is in.
• In the first seconds, orders may be executed with slippage ; market orders at the moment of release are high-risk.
• Set your stop loss based on market structure, not so close that news volatility triggers it.
• Also read the previous figure and its revision; the recent releases table on this page is enough for this comparison.

This page is an informational tool and not a recommendation to buy or sell.