European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision is the most important event on the economic calendar for the euro. At each meeting, the ECB announces whether the euro area's key interest rates will stay unchanged, go up or come down, and shortly afterwards the bank's president talks about the path ahead at a press conference. At the top of this page you can see the current rate, the date of the next meeting and the history of ECB interest rate changes since 2000. This guide explains how decision day unfolds, which rate matters most and what the market reacts to.

The European Central Bank and the Governing Council

The ECB's monetary policy decisions are made by the Governing Council, made up of the six members of the bank's Executive Board and the governors of the national central banks of the euro area member states. The ECB's main mandate is to maintain price stability, and its target is 2% inflation over the medium term; the target is symmetric, meaning inflation below the target is as undesirable as inflation above it. That is why the most important input into this decision is the euro area inflation data. Monetary policy meetings are held eight times a year, roughly once every six weeks.

The ECB's three interest rates: which one matters most?

Unlike the Federal Reserve, which announces a target range, the ECB has three key rates that usually change together:

Rate	Purpose
Deposit Facility Rate	The interest banks earn on overnight deposits with the ECB
Main Refinancing Rate	The ECB's weekly lending rate to banks
Marginal Lending Facility	The rate on emergency overnight loans to banks; the ceiling of the corridor

Economic calendars usually list the main refinancing rate as the headline figure, but since 2024 the ECB itself has said it steers the monetary policy stance through the deposit rate, and most analysis refers to that rate as well. So if you see a different figure in the news, it is probably one of the other two of these three rates. Remember that the ECB's deposit rate was negative from 2014 to 2022, meaning banks paid to keep money with the central bank.

ECB meeting day in Tehran time

Decision day has two waves of news. First the decision statement is released, and half an hour later the president's press conference begins:

Event	Frankfurt time	Tehran in summer	Tehran in winter
Statement and rate decision	14:15	15:45	16:45
Press conference	14:45	16:15	17:15

European summer time runs from the last Sunday of March to the last Sunday of October, and since Iran does not observe daylight saving time, this change alone shifts the Tehran times. At the March, June, September and December meetings, ECB staff economic projections for inflation and growth are also released, and these meetings are usually more eventful. Details of each meeting's discussions are published about four weeks later in a report called the «Account».

What does the market react to?

Most of the time the decision itself is largely predictable in advance and the market has already priced it in. The main volatility comes from three places: a decision that differs from market expectations, a change in the tone of the statement, and the president's answers at the press conference about upcoming meetings. Common patterns, which are not guaranteed:

• A more hawkish tone than expected (a higher chance of higher rates) usually strengthens the euro and pushes EUR/USD higher.
• A softer tone or a hint of a rate cut usually weakens the euro; pairs such as EUR/JPY are affected too.
• The impact on the dollar and gold is usually smaller than with a Federal Reserve decision, since the euro is only one side of the equation.

The currency market looks more at the rate differential than at a single rate; that is why the comparison with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision matters. See the latest rates of all the major central banks side by side on the central bank interest rates page.

Risk management on ECB decision day

1. Be ready for two waves of volatility: the move after the statement may fully reverse during the press conference.
2. Both times fall in the London session and near the New York open, when euro liquidity is high; to understand how these hours behave, read forex trading sessions .
3. If you have an open euro position, use the trader's calculator to size it so that a sharp move does not exceed your risk limit.
4. Compare the decision with the wording of the statement, not just the number; for a fuller framework, see 10 risk management standards in trading .

This page is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.