UK Unemployment Rate

The UK unemployment rate is actually part of Britain's monthly labour market report, published by the country's Office for National Statistics (ONS). The report has three headline numbers that the market reads at the same time: the unemployment rate, the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (Claimant Count) and wage growth. At the top of this page you can see the next release time in Tehran time, the latest figures and the official history of the unemployment rate and wage growth. This guide explains what each of these numbers tells you, what time UK unemployment data is released and why the pound sometimes reacts more to wages than to the unemployment rate itself.

What does the UK labour market report measure?

In the economic calendar, this report appears as several separate rows. Each row shows part of the labour market picture, and the "good" and "bad" direction is not the same for all of them:

Calendar title	What it measures	A higher number means
Unemployment Rate	The percentage of the labour force that is unemployed and looking for work, as defined by the International Labour Organization and based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)	Weaker labour market
Claimant Count Change	Monthly change in the number of people receiving unemployment-related benefits; from administrative data	Rising unemployment
Average Earnings Index 3m/y	Growth in average weekly earnings over the last three months compared with the same three months a year earlier	More inflationary pressure

The UK unemployment rate is a three-month average, not a single month. This reduces sampling noise, but it means the figure arrives with a lag: the three-month period has usually ended about a month and a half before the release. The Claimant Count covers the previous month and is therefore more recent, although changes to benefit rules can pull it away from the reality of the labour market.

Wage growth is also published in two versions: including bonuses and excluding bonuses (Regular Pay). Bonuses push the figure up and down in some months, which is why many analysts and the Bank of England itself pay more attention to pay excluding bonuses, especially in the private sector.

UK unemployment rate release time in Tehran time

The labour market report is monthly and is released at 7 a.m. London time, usually in the middle of the month and often on a Tuesday. Because Iran does not observe daylight saving time but the UK does, this time in Tehran time is not fixed throughout the year:

• Summer (British Summer Time): 9:30 a.m. Tehran time
• Winter: 10:30 a.m. Tehran time

This time falls before the official open of most European markets, right at the handover from the Asian session to the London session; liquidity is not yet full and moves can be sharp. To see session overlaps, check the world market hours page. The labour market report and UK inflation are usually released a short time apart, and the market interprets them together.

Why does wage growth matter more for the pound than unemployment itself?

The Bank of England has a 2% inflation target, and fast wage growth is one of the main sources of services inflation. If wages rise quickly, companies pass the cost on to prices and the bank becomes more cautious about cutting interest rates. That is why, in many months, the biggest move in the pound comes from the wage section of the report, not from the unemployment rate.

Sometimes the report's figures don't point in the same direction; for example, the unemployment rate has risen but wages are still strong. In that case the market usually gives more weight to whichever detail seems more important for the Bank of England interest rate decision , and the initial reaction may go both ways. See the latest Bank of England rate and the date of the next meeting on the central bank interest rates page.

Typical market reaction to UK unemployment data

The report's biggest impact is on the pound. These are common tendencies, not hard rules:

• Unemployment lower than forecast and wages higher: Higher interest rates for longer look more likely, and the pound usually strengthens; for example in GBP/USD.
• Higher unemployment and slower wages: Expectations of rate cuts increase and the pound usually comes under pressure.
• Cross pairs: In EUR/GBP the effect of the news is seen more cleanly, because the dollar plays no part in it.

The report's effect on gold and crypto is usually limited. Comparing it with the US unemployment rate is also useful: US data moves the global market, while UK data is mostly the pound's story.

Limitations of this data and trading tips

In recent years, the UK Office for National Statistics has warned about falling response rates to the Labour Force Survey. For this reason, the market sometimes treats the unemployment rate with caution and gives more weight to the administrative data in the same report, such as the number of payrolled employees (Payrolled Employees). The previous month's figure may also be revised, and the revision is news in itself.

1. Before the release, check the forecast for all three figures, not just the unemployment rate.
2. In the first few minutes, the spread on the pound is wider at many brokers, and there is a chance of orders being filled at a worse price.
3. Use the trader's calculator to size your position so that a sharp move doesn't cause a loss larger than your risk limit.
4. If the report's figures contradict each other, wait until the market's dominant direction becomes clear.

This page is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.