UK Inflation (CPI)

UK inflation (CPI) is a monthly release that comes out early in the morning and moves the pound before most traders are at their desks. It matters because the Bank of England sets its target directly on this index. At the top of this page you can see the next release time in Tehran time, the latest actual figure alongside the forecast and previous, and a chart of annual and core inflation from official ONS data. This guide explains exactly what UK CPI measures, how it differs from similar indices, and why its release time is an important point for Iranian traders.

UK CPI and its two related indices

UK inflation is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and its monthly report includes several price indices side by side. Knowing the differences between them prevents confusion:

Index	What it measures	Market importance
CPI	Change in the price of a basket of household consumer goods and services	Highest; the basis of the Bank of England's inflation target
CPIH	CPI plus owner-occupiers' housing costs	The ONS's headline index, but the market reacts to it less
RPI	An older index with a different calculation method	Low; mostly used in some older contracts and bonds

In the economic calendar, the headline is annual CPI (CPI y/y), with core inflation (Core CPI y/y) shown next to it. UK core inflation excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices and shows the more persistent trend in prices.

UK inflation release time in Tehran time

UK inflation data is released monthly for the previous month, usually on a Wednesday in the middle of the month at 7 a.m. London time. That means 9:30 a.m. Tehran time in summer and 10:30 in winter. Because Iran has no daylight saving time, this time shifts by one hour when the UK changes its clocks.

This is before the official start of the London session. At that moment pound liquidity has not yet peaked and some brokers' spreads are wider than usual, so the first move can be sharp and erratic. To understand these windows better, read the article Forex and crypto trading sessions .

The 2% target and the Bank of England Governor's open letter

The UK government has set the inflation target at 2% based on CPI, and the Bank of England is tasked with achieving it. A lesser-known rule is that if inflation moves more than one percentage point above or below the target, the Governor must explain in an open letter to the Chancellor why this happened and what the Bank plans to do to bring inflation back to target.

For this reason, this data is the most direct input into the Bank of England interest rate decision . Alongside the headline figure, the Bank pays special attention to core inflation and services inflation, because these components depend on wages and come down more slowly. Follow wage conditions on the UK unemployment rate page.

Reaction of the pound, currency pairs and the pound price in Iran

Typically, higher-than-forecast inflation increases the likelihood of higher interest rates or slower rate cuts and strengthens the pound; a lower-than-expected figure does the opposite. The biggest impact is seen in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP . In EUR/GBP, if eurozone inflation is also released around the same days, comparing the surprise on each side usually determines the direction of the move. These are common tendencies, not hard rules; if the headline and core figures surprise in opposite directions, the initial reaction may reverse quickly.

For Iranian traders there is one more point: the pound price in Iran's open market depends mostly on the domestic dollar rate and local factors, and UK inflation data reaches it only through the global exchange rate, with a limited effect.

UK inflation release day checklist

1. The night before, check the forecast on this page and know how much is expected for both the headline and core figures.
2. If you have an open pound position, decide before the release time whether to keep it or reduce its size.
3. Don't enter in the first minutes, with thin liquidity and wide spreads; wait until the London session officially opens.
4. Compare the actual figure with the forecast and see whether the difference is in headline or core inflation.
5. Align your stop loss and position size with the principles of risk management in trading .

This page is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.